All Case Studies
Financial ServicesSeries B Fintech2025

Atlas Forecasting Engine

Replaced a brittle rules-based forecasting system with a hierarchical time-series model that improved cash-flow accuracy by 38% and unlocked treasury automation.

Client
Series B Fintech
Sector
Financial Services
Duration
14 weeks
Team
3 engineers · 1 researcher
The Challenge

The starting point.

The client's treasury team relied on a 12-year-old spreadsheet model to forecast working capital across 40 currencies. Forecasts drifted weekly and required constant manual reconciliation, blocking automated FX hedging.

The Approach

What we built.

  1. 01
    Audited two years of historical cash positions and identified seven seasonality regimes
  2. 02
    Built a hierarchical Prophet + LightGBM ensemble with currency-aware features
  3. 03
    Designed a continuous-evaluation harness running against live treasury actuals
  4. 04
    Shipped a FastAPI service with an auditable forecast lineage for compliance
Results

What shipped, what changed.

38%
Forecast accuracy lift
$4.2M
Annual hedging savings
92%
Manual reconciliation removed
14 wk
From kickoff to production
Stack

What's running in production.

PythonProphetLightGBMSnowflakeFastAPIAirflow
Next case study
Aurora Vision Platform